Scenarios

Future visions for a world in transformation

The global energy industry is facing major challenges. Demand continues on the rise in response to economic development and population growth. In addition, meanwhile, the industry needs to undertake mitigation measures to reduce the emissions associated with the consumption of energy. Climate change-related risks have not only boosted the demand for products with low impact on emissions, but also increased the inclusion of renewable sources.

The transportation sector, the main destination of oil and gas industry products, is one of the important transformational powers in this scenario, which includes transportation services based on digital applications, increased the supply of electric vehicles, and the appearance of autonomous vehicles, among other factors.

All of this comes under an even broader technological transformation context, the reach of which transcends and shapes the energy industry. The convergence of a group of technologies, the applications of which are growing exponentially, has been drawing the attention of specialists to a possible new industrial revolution.

Scenarios are world perspectives created based on countless variables. They enable the observation and analysis of situations with potential to affect organizations directly or indirectly.

Considering the possible future scenarios, we have analyzed factors that have a high degree of impact on the energy industry, consolidated trends or critical uncertainties to prepare the Petrobras Scenarios for 2040.

Petrobras Scenarios for 2040

 

Main transformations in course:

  • Carbon emission and pricing targets;
  • Increased demand for energy;
  • New value chains and consumption standards;
  • Disconnect between economic and energetic growth;
  • Electrification of the road transportation sector;
  • Shift of the energy dynamics to Asia.

All of the scenarios present an increase in the demand for energy. Oil has a smaller share, but remains a relevant source. In the School and Coral scenarios, renewable sources play a leading role in supplying the demand for power in the world.

The 2040 Petrobras Scenarios are the starting point for our long-term planning process. They are a live, dynamic process in the ongoing conception and validation of our strategies and in the choices pointed to in our 2019-2023 Business and Management Plan. We are permanently attentive to the external environment and focused on the threats and opportunities.